Ron's Dong Tool

• Pick any hitter and any arm → the same breakdown the Picks board runs: base power, both platoon edges, arm stuff, lineup slot, bullpen, park and weather, combined into a matchup score. Tap the ? beside Matchup Factors for what every multiplier means on the pairing in front of you. (The Pitch Matchup chart is context only — it hasn't been part of the score since August.)
• It scores the real game when there is one. The Gameday strip says which: matches the Picks board means this exact pairing is on today's board and the number is identical to it; today's real game means he's in a lineup we project but off the board, so his slot, the park, the forecast, that arm's share of the game and the opposing bullpen's platoon split are all live. Neutral means these two aren't matched up today.
• Every lever is yours. Lineup spot, weather and bullpen can each be overridden to ask "what if he hit leadoff", "what if the wind died", "starter only". Any change flips the strip to a Reset to auto button — that's how you know you've left the real game.
• Table view scores every lineup on today's slate at once — one row per batter vs his starter, a column per factor, tap any header to sort. Spot × is every factor multiplied together with his power left out (Score = Power × Spot), so sorting by it surfaces non-homer hitters in great spots: the longshots a low score hides. Bueno is P. Vuln × Contact × Platoon — just him vs this arm, no slot, park, weather or stuff. Arm × is just the pitching side. Tap a row to open it here.
• Defaults to today's top Chalk pick vs the arm he's facing. Tap either name (🔍) to search another player, or type a team code like STL in the batter box to see that whole lineup ranked against the loaded arm — which is where a pitcher's player card sends you.

• What it counts. Across every game day this season, how often each group of hitters homered on the same day. Ranked by how many days they've gone deep together.
• Group size. Pick Pairs, Trios, Quads, or Quints with the size selector — the bigger the group, the rarer (and longer-odds) the combo.
• Why it matters. A high co-occurrence means their homers tend to cluster — stacked in a lineup, hitter-friendly park, wind blowing out — which is exactly what a same-game HR parlay wants: legs that move together, not independently.
• Filters. Search names to require specific hitters in every group; badges flag today's context (playing, injured, or just back).

• League view. Charts HR/game across the season with optional technical-analysis overlays — moving averages, Bollinger bands, a Chalk Index, and MACD — treating leaguewide power like a ticker so you can spot hot and cold stretches.
• Individual view. Ranks players by HR, G/HR, AB/HR, and recency of their last bomb.
• Zoom. Drag across the chart (or tap a preset) to stretch into a single stretch — say, since July. The "?" footnote under each chart explains every overlay.

• What's here. Every homer from the most recent completed day: how far it went, the pitcher who gave it up, the pitch type, and a ▶ to watch the clip. Jump to any date with the nav.
• Multi-homer days. Each clip is tagged to the right homer by distance and season-HR number (or process of elimination). Clips that show both homers — or a team montage — stay untagged rather than get mislabeled.
• Reels. Swipe the reels view to watch the day's bombs back-to-back, biggest board names first.

• Homer Score. Each game blends both probable pitchers' HR-vulnerability (HR/9, with K/9 as a cue), the park's HR factor, and game-time weather into one number — how homer-friendly the game projects overall. Greener = juicier.
• Top pick. Every game's best HR bat by fair odds — the better of the two clubs' — frozen at first pitch and graded: ✓ once he homers, ✗ if the game ends without one.
• The game card. Tap any game: Picks (every HR candidate in it and both starters' strikeout and walk lines), Matchup (starters, lineups — confirmed or projected — bullpens, park and weather), Lines (open, now and every move) and Game (the line score and every homer).
• Other days. ‹ › pages back to results and ahead to probable starters. Lineups, pens and live Homer Scores are the current slate's; a finished day keeps its closing lines, Homer Scores and graded picks.

• The drought. Every hitter's current AB count since his last HR is compared to his own season-long gap pattern, not a flat number — a 30-AB drought means something very different for a guy who usually homers every 12 ABs than one who homers every 28. We z-score it: how many standard deviations beyond his typical gap he is right now.
• The weighting. That z-score is weighted up for proven power (more season HRs = more signal worth trusting) and for confidence (more historical gaps logged = a sturdier personal average, so one early-season fluke doesn't swing things).
• The contact nudge. Up to ±15% is layered on top based on Statcast's own per-batted-ball contact-quality grade (1-6, weak contact to barrel — already a joint read on exit velo and launch angle), averaged across every batted ball since his last HR vs. before it, and blended with his season rate so one lucky or unlucky swing in a short stretch can't swing the result on its own. Cooling contact nudges his score down even if the raw AB math says he's "due"; contact that's still scalding nudges it up. Exit velo, Sweet Spot%, and Barrel% are shown below for context but don't separately drive the score — they're already folded into that one grade.
• Eligibility. z ≥ 1.0, 5+ HR this season, AB/HR ≤ 30, and excludes anyone inactive 5+ days (injured, benched, or demoted) — a stale drought doesn't count. A day-to-day guy who's still in the lineup stays fully eligible; his drought is real, he's just playing through something.
• Who's shown. By default the list hides players who can't bat today — on the IL, team not playing, or out of a posted lineup — since a due hitter who can't play isn't actionable. Their droughts keep tracking in the background; flip off the "Hide Off / Bench / IL" filter to see them. Day-to-day guys (hurt but not IL'd, 🤕, pulled from ESPN's injury report) are handled by lineup: in today's lineup, he plays through it and the tag drops; out of it, he's treated like a benched/injured guy — hidden by default and dropped from the rankings, but tagged 🤕 (not "bench") so the reason is clear. A separate "Hide Day-to-Day" toggle hides them even when the off/bench/IL filter is off.

The board is ranked by fair odds: our chance he homers today, from a model fitted on every 2026 starter-game and tested on games it never saw. Each price splits into the parts that move it, as multipliers on his odds against today's average starter (1.00× is average):

• Power. His home-run rate, barrels and "blasts" (fast, squared-up swings) per plate appearance, each this season shrunk toward last season, plus how often he pulls the ball in the air and how long since his last homer (a long drought is slightly worse, never "due").
• Pitcher. The starter's barrels allowed per batter faced, and his fastball velocity (every mph is about 4% fewer homers).
• Park. Last season's home runs there against the league.
• Weather. Temperature (about +11% odds per 10°F), wind blowing out or in, and day games (about 5% fewer). Roofed parks are neutral.
• Slot. Higher in the order means more trips to the plate.

Until October 2026 the board ranked a Pick Score: power times a list of matchup multipliers (batter platoon, starter and bullpen vuln, arm stuff, recent contact, park, weather), each at full weight. We tested every one of them against 72,594 starter-games, and against Kalshi's prices. At those weights they made the odds worse. Platoon and pitcher vuln are real but about a seventh as strong, and recent contact, hot streaks, "due" droughts and blast surplus predicted nothing. Chalk ranked by score lost 14.7% at Kalshi's asking prices. What did earn a weight is in the price above. The matchup factors still show in each pick's card as context; they don't move the price.

• 🔒 Chalk = every starting bat, shortest price first. Narrow it with Max price in Filters. The top 10% of the slate's bats (at most 15) are "on the board" and carry the badge on other tools; the top 15 make up the daily record. The most likely to go deep, and the market knows it: shop the price.
• 🎯 Value = Bueno's screen, experimental. Longshots (+900 or longer) whose batter platoon, pitching vuln (starter and pen) and recent contact all sit in the top 40% of today's slate. Each of those alone predicts nothing beyond the market, but together they're the one idea that held up against Kalshi: +6.5% at the ask (945 picks) where every bat lost 4.1%. That's not proven yet, so it's tracked here until it is, or isn't.

• Lineups. Confirmed lineups when posted; before then, projected starters (labeled). The slot part is neutral until his slot is known.
• Fair means no vig. A book always prices worse than this. Our odds rank homers about as well as a good model can, but Kalshi's prices still rank them a little better, so treat a gap between our price and the market as a reason to look, not a bet.

• The watch list. Recent MLB call-ups and debuts (from the transaction feed), ranked by their AAA/AA power — HR, AB/HR, OPS. The bet: young power that just arrived isn't priced by the book yet.
• Graduations. The history tab tracks who's stuck in the majors and whether they've since gone deep up top.

• The premise. HR luck is day-to-day, so a strong pick that missed is worth another look. Shows yesterday's proven-power Picks that didn't homer, with the rank they carried.
• No re-scoring. On purpose — the whole idea is that yesterday's miss doesn't change today's odds. Filters let you hide anyone off/benched/injured, drop day-to-day guys, or limit to bats also on today's board.

• Who's here. Power bats on an injured list or day-to-day per ESPN's injury report — anyone with at least one homer this season, so pitchers and no-power scrubs are filtered out. Each shows his season homers and today's Due / Pick badges where they apply. Tracked returns (the Results tab) are held to a higher bar — 5+ HR — so the return-day homer rate reflects real boppers.
• Return dates. ESPN's estimated return date — a target, not a promise. Near-term dates are usually solid; a date weeks out can slide with setbacks or rehab stints.
• Just back. When a hitter drops off the injury report (and isn't on the IL), he's flagged here for his first 3 days back — the "homers in his first game back" window. A guy still on the report but confirmed in today's lineup counts as back too.
• Results. Every flagged return is tracked: homer within that 3-day window and he moves to the Results tab as a hit; the window closes with no homer and he's logged as a miss. The tab shows the running return-day homer rate.

• Today. Matches today's date to every hitter's birthday and shows the age he's turning, biggest boppers first.
• Results. The silly tracker: do birthday boys homer on their birthday? It logs the rate over guys who actually played. Pure fun, not a real edge.

• The model. Backtested on this season's steals, it's two stages: who runs is driven by the runner (speed, lead, his own attempt rate) and the pitcher's handedness (lefties hold runners ~26% better); whether it works is driven by the catcher (pop time + arm → caught-stealing rate), not raw runner speed or pitcher tempo.
• Run%. How often he takes off per time on base, from his own season attempt rate, adjusted for the pitcher's hand.
• Safe%. His success rate vs this catcher — his steal-success blended with the catcher's caught-stealing rate (a runner × catcher log5).
• Steal. The headline rank — expected successful steals per 100 times on base (Run% × Safe%).

• Pick a pitch up top, then the 30 teams rank by how they hit it. Tap a team to drill into its individual hitters vs that pitch.
• BA & SLG are the headline — team numbers pool every batter's at-bats against that pitch (volume-weighted). Sort by any column.
• Barrel% · Sweet-Spot% · Hard-Hit% come from Statcast batted balls split by pitch — the quality-of-contact read behind the results. Whiff% is swing-and-miss (lower is better for the hitter).
• Contact (1–6) is the average of Statcast's per-batted-ball grade — every ball in play scored 1 = weak · 2 = topped · 3 = under · 4 = flare/burner · 5 = solid · 6 = barrel (its joint read of exit velo + launch angle). Higher = harder, more homer-shaped contact; ~2.5 is roughly league-average.
• Batters need 10+ pitches of a type to qualify (low so rare pitches like splitters still get team-wide coverage; team numbers are PA-weighted, so small samples barely move them). Data is 2026 regular season, via Baseball Savant.

• 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker (two-seamers fold in here), Cutter, Changeup — as named.
• Slider — sliders + slurves.
• Sweeper — its own category, not lumped into Slider (the big modern split).
• Curveball — curveballs + knuckle curves + slow curves.
• Split-Finger — splitters + forkballs.
• Eephus, knuckleball, and unclassified pitches are left out. Everything's grouped the way Baseball Savant groups it.

• Ranked by "Juice" — a pitcher's HR-vulnerability × the park. Higher = a better spot to back a home run against him tonight. Tap a card to see the specific bats that punish him most (ranked by our matchup score).
• Arm Stuff is the core vulnerability read: 4-seam velocity + barrel%-allowed (the exit-velo/launch-angle combo that leaves the yard). A leak-free backtest (~1,700 HR out-of-sample) found this predicts a pitcher's homer-proneness far better than HR/9 — and barrel beats hard-hit% because it ignores hard grounders that stay in the park. Above 1× = juicy (soft velo / loud contact), below 1× = tough.
• Park is the venue's HR/game vs league — a vulnerable arm in a bandbox is even juicier. Roofed/neutral parks sit at 1×.
• Barrel% and Velo are shown as the drivers behind Arm Stuff. Need ~40 batted balls for a barrel read and ~20 four-seamers for velo, else that piece stays neutral.
• Relievers aren't listed — this is today's probable starters only. Openers show their listed arm. Data is 2026, via Baseball Savant.

• Exp K% is the headline — the strikeout rate we'd expect in this specific matchup, via a log5 blend of the pitcher's K% and the opponent's team K% against the league baseline. Higher = a better strikeout spot.
• ~Proj Ks estimates the raw strikeout count for his start: Exp K% × the batters he actually averages per start. That second number is measured, not derived from innings × a constant — the old shortcut overstated batters faced by about half a batter and mispriced the overs by 4–5 points.
• Why season-long, not hot/cold? K% is one of the fastest-stabilizing stats in baseball (reliable by ~70 batters faced), so a season rate is already trustworthy and recency mostly adds noise. Rates are lightly regressed toward league for small samples.
• Flip the scope with the By Pitcher / By Batter toggle: By Batter ranks today's hitters by their expected K% vs the starter they face — the likeliest bats to whiff today.
• Ranks and the tracked set. The board numbers every startable arm and marks where the Results tab stops grading — the top 8. Ordering keeps working past that line: over 143 replayed slates ranks 1-4 walked 10.1% of batters, 5-8 walked 9.1%, 9-12 walked 8.4%, and only at 13+ does it fall away (7.4%, then 6.7%).
• Why eight and not twelve? Because tracking deeper makes the record less conclusive, not more. Going deeper adds rows but dilutes the edge faster than the extra sample tightens the error bar — the strongest bet on the board measures 4.3 standard errors from zero at eight deep, 4.2 at ten, 3.8 at twelve and 3.1 at sixteen. The board's lift over the full slate slides the same way, 1.17× down to 1.08×. Eight is where the signal is sharpest, so eight is what gets logged.
• Odds or Rate. Default order is ~Proj, the projected count, because that is what the prices are built from — sorting by rate while showing a count price put something other than the best bet at the top. Rate orders by Exp% instead, which answers a different question: how wild is the spot, regardless of how deep he goes. On the market itself the two are a wash (Over 1.5 hits 66.5% by projection against 65.3% by rate, inside one standard error), so pick whichever question you're asking.
• Ranks and the tracked set. The board numbers every startable arm and marks where the Results tab stops grading — the top 8. Ordering keeps working past that line: over 143 replayed slates ranks 1-4 walked 10.1% of batters, 5-8 walked 9.1%, 9-12 walked 8.4%, and only at 13+ does it fall away (7.4%, then 6.7%).
• Why eight and not twelve? Because tracking deeper makes the record less conclusive, not more. Going deeper adds rows but dilutes the edge faster than the extra sample tightens the error bar — the strongest bet on the board measures 4.3 standard errors from zero at eight deep, 4.2 at ten, 3.8 at twelve and 3.1 at sixteen. The board's lift over the full slate slides the same way, 1.17× down to 1.08×. Eight is where the signal is sharpest, so eight is what gets logged.
• Odds or Rate. Default order is ~Proj, the projected count, because that is what the prices are built from — sorting by rate while showing a count price put something other than the best bet at the top. Rate orders by Exp% instead, which answers a different question: how wild is the spot, regardless of how deep he goes. On the market itself the two are a wash (Over 1.5 hits 66.5% by projection against 65.3% by rate, inside one standard error), so pick whichever question you're asking.
• Results. Every past slate is replayed and graded — the board is rebuilt from the rates that were known that morning, then checked against what those arms actually did. See the Results tab for the running hit rate.
• Today's probable starters only (openers show their listed arm). Data is 2026 regular season, via MLB Stats.

• Exp BB% is the headline — the walk rate we'd expect in this matchup, via a log5 blend of the pitcher's BB% and the opponent's team BB% (walks drawn) against the league baseline. Higher = a wilder spot.
• ~Proj BB estimates the walks for his start: Exp BB% × the batters he actually averages per start (measured, not innings × a constant).
• Projections are priced capped at 2.4. Replaying every start this season, a pitcher projected above about 2.4 walks doesn't actually walk more — extreme walk rates regress, and a wild arm tends to get pulled before the walks pile up. Uncapped, arms projected 2.7+ were quoted around −360 on Over 1.5 and went over like −212 (68%); capped, the price is about −224. The board still ranks by the raw projection, so the order doesn't change — a capped arm is marked cap with his raw number beside it.
• Rank history on the top 8. Each of the board's top 8 carries a small flag: how the board's arm at that spot has done on Over 1.5 across every graded slate, in odds and percent (e.g. #1 o1.5 hist −229 · 70%). The top three have gone over about 70% of the time however steep their own price looked, so it's a useful check against the book. It's a record of the rank — it isn't part of our price. The full table is on the Results tab.
• Late-season flags. From mid-September a start can carry a status flag, off last night's standings. Measured over the last four Augusts and Septembers, every club and starter against itself: starters facing an eliminated lineup walk about 1.2 points less (a lineup with nothing to play for swings early); starters on clinched clubs are pulled about 5.4 pitches early, on eliminated clubs about 2.5. Clubs still in the race are normal — teams in the hunt don't leave starters in longer. The flags are information, not price: folded into the projection they pointed the right way but over-corrected on 2026's starts.
• Ball rate sits in the pitcher card: how often his pitches are called balls (league ~36%). It does carry signal beyond his walk rate, but only with the whole projection refit around it, and that version priced the top of the board too low — so it's context, not an input. Chase rate was tested too and adds nothing: it's already inside the walk rates.
• Why season-long? Like K%, walk rate stabilizes fast (~120 batters faced), so a season rate is reliable and recency mostly adds noise. Rates are lightly regressed toward league for small samples.
• Flip the scope with the By Pitcher / By Batter toggle: By Batter ranks today's hitters by their expected BB% vs the starter they face — the likeliest bats to draw a walk today.
• Results. Every past slate is replayed and graded — the board is rebuilt from the rates that were known that morning, then checked against what those arms actually did. See the Results tab for the running hit rate.
• Today's probable starters only (openers show their listed arm). Data is 2026 regular season, via MLB Stats.

• Closing In. Flags anyone within 3 homers of their next round hundred — career HR milestones only, no 50s — ranked by how close, with a pace estimate from this year's rate.
• Reached. Collects everyone who's crossed a hundred this season.
• No ceiling. Tracking isn't capped at 300 — a 400th, 500th, or 600th chase shows up the same way.